Link between National Football Conference Victory and Market Growth

As I have previously discussed, the Super Bowl indicator is something that investors and traders are closely watching. According to Forbes Magazine, National Football Conference victories have been linked with greater market growth than American Football Conference victories. S&P Capital IQ’s annual study of Super Bowl stock has seen an average market increase of 23.7% when the San Fransisco 49’ers win the Super Bowl. In 2001, the Baltimore Ravens, a team in the American Football Conference, beat the New York Giants 34-7, and the following year the S&P 500 dropped by 11.9%.

Forbes indicates that the 14.6% average return after a National Football Conference victory is double the return than when an American Football Conference team wins the Super Bowl. High-scoring games are another trend yielding higher returns for investors. When the team scores combined dip below 46 points the stock market return average is 6.1%. By contrast, high-scoring games where the team scores combined are above 46 points the average return is 16.4%. Nevertheless, a blowout may not show a market upswing. In 1990, San Fransisco beat the Denver Broncos 55-10 breaking the record for the largest point differential, but the market dropped by 3.1% in the following year. 

See Chris Smith, Stock Market Trends Say Wall Street Should Root for the San Francisco 49ers, Forbes Magazine, Jan. 29, 2013.

Special thanks to Jim Hillhouse (Professional Legal Marketing (PLM, Inc.)) for bringing this article to my attention.