Art auctions rely on debt, divorce and death — can the latter keep the market moving?

Special thanks to Joel C. Dobris (Professor of Law, UC Davis School of Law) for bringing this article to my attention.

The supply of art for auction has long relied on what are known as the three Ds: debt, divorce and death. In recent years, the latter has dominated as a certain breed of collector — notably the self-made millionaires who bought art during the US golden age of the 1950s and 60s — reached the end. 

“What is new is the scale, in volume and value,” says Caroline Sayan, president and CEO of the art advisers Cadell North America. Previously at Christie’s for 25 years, she oversaw estate sales including the $835mn collection of Peggy and David Rockefeller in 2018, the year after the industrialist heir died. “Think of it as like planes landing. Before this time, there were smaller jets, individual planes, and it was easy to manoeuvre. Then, all of a sudden, these jumbo jets started coming in,” she says.

Statistics from the analysis firm ArtTactic show that in 2018, single-owner collections — predominantly estates — accounted for $2.1bn (17 per cent) of auction totals, up from $820mn (7 per cent) in 2017. Since then, totals and percentages have surpassed this, with single-owner collections averaging $2.6bn in value and accounting for 23 per cent of auction sales in 2021-2025.

The impact on the market and its all-important mood is notable. In 2022, the year of the record-breaking $1.6bn sale of works from the collection of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, art sales as a whole, including from the private dealer sector, were at their highest level for eight years, according to the Art Basel & UBS Art Market report. Last year’s bounce into the black was helped by the $527mn sale of art from the cosmetics heir Leonard Lauder. 

The challenges of an estate auction are exacerbated by a need for speed in what can be a slow-moving market. In the US, for example, “estate taxes are often due nine months after the date of death,” Sayan notes. Familial disagreements can add to the hastening, and estimates can be set relatively low when the aim is simply to sell. “Auctions resolve any problems of liquidity and prices are transparent, so the IRS [the US tax authority] can’t argue,” Sayan says. Estate lawyers are likely also attracted by the price gains of some of the art that was bought in the postwar period. The Vanthournouts’s £5.5mn Magritte was bought privately in the late 1960s, a time when such works “would cost less than £30,000”, Camu says. 

While there are only so many such estates, there seem to be enough to keep the market moving. The Great Wealth Transfer of trillions of dollars from the wealth creation generations has only just begun, Sayan notes. Josh Baer, an industry observer and private dealer, predicts that this year “at least four collections worth over $200mn will come to the auction market”. The recent deaths of respected collectors such as the New York banker-turned-gallerist Robert Mnuchin and the patron and philanthropist Agnes Gund are among those expected to keep the auction houses busy, while debt and divorce are not going away fast. Sayan says the specialists are primed to compete for the goods, in a still-hesitant market: “Strategic intent has moved from a game of chequers to a game of chess.”

For more information see Melanie Gerlis “Art auctions rely on debt, divorce and death — can the latter keep the market moving?” The Financial Times, January 13, 2026.